体育强国视域下体育治理的问题与出路

体育治理是国家治理体系和治理能力现代化的重要内容,直接关乎国家治理的时代进程。近年来,国家层面相继提出“体育强国”“健康中国”战略,如何通过有效的体育治理来实现体育强国战略,是推动我国体育事业改革的重要课题。目前我国体育治理目标定位与现实社会环境之间还存在偏差,体育治理组织形态在一定程度上也影响体育政策的执行,同时体育治理利益多元博弈对体育治理方式提出挑战。体育治理必须以满足人民群众的体育文化生活需求为根本导向,从治理理念、治理主体、治理结构、治理方式等层面进行深度改革,助力体育强国的实现。     

Bad News Has Wings: Dread Risk Mediates Social Amplification in Risk Communication

Social diffusion of information amplifies risk through processes of birth, death, and distortion of message content. Dread risk—involving uncontrollable, fatal, involuntary, and catastrophic outcomes (e.g., terrorist attacks and nuclear accidents)—may be particularly susceptible to amplification because of the psychological biases inherent in dread risk avoidance. To test this, initially balanced information about high or low dread topics was given to a set of individuals who then communicated this information through diffusion chains, each person passing a message to the next. A subset of these chains were also reexposed to the original information. We measured prior knowledge, perceived risk before and after transmission, and, at each link, number of positive and negative statements. Results showed that the more a message was transmitted the more negative statements it contained. This was highest for the high dread topic. Increased perceived risk and production of negative messages was closely related to the amount of negative information that was received, with domain knowledge mitigating this effect. Reexposure to the initial information was ineffectual in reducing bias, demonstrating the enhanced danger of socially transmitted information.     

Leader-member exchange and organizational citizenship behaviors: Contextual effects of leader power distance and group task interdependence

In this paper we explore the context of the relationship between leader-member exchange and organizational citizenship behaviors (OCB). We maintain that workgroup leader's power distance and the extent of task interdependence in the group exert cross-level effects on the LMX-OCB relationship. We assert that leader power distance attenuates the relationship between LMX and OCB, and this effect is stronger in workgroups with high degree of task interdependence. Results of hierarchical linear modeling analysis of data gathered from 245 employees nested in 54 workgroups supported our hypotheses. LMX-OCB relationship was weaker in workgroups led by high power distance leaders. Further, the three-way cross-level interaction between LMX, leader power distance and group task interdependence demonstrated that the tendency for LMX to have a stronger positive effect on OCB when leader power distance was low rather than high was more pronounced in high task interdependence teams.     

美国影响下的俄罗斯与伊朗关系

俄罗斯自视为“世界大国”,伊朗自视为“中东大国”。俄伊关系对中东政治格局具有重大的影响。俄伊两国在经济金融、核能开发、军工装备和打击恐怖主义等方面,存在着共同利益。但与此同时,俄罗斯和伊朗在叙利亚问题、对美国关系和中东地缘政治等议题上,仍然存在猜忌和矛盾。自视为“世界大国”的俄罗斯与美国保持既合作又竞争的复杂关系,因此在中东事务上,保持着与美国及其盟国的关系;自视为“中东大国”的伊朗反对外部力量干涉,反对美国及其盟国影响中东事务。美国的压力和威胁,促成了俄罗斯和伊朗之间的多领域合作。然而,俄罗斯和伊朗对美国的认知差异,是俄伊两国关系进一步发展的重要障碍。     

Making sense of nuclear war: narratives of voluntary civil defence and the memory of Britain’s Cold War

In interviews with members of Britain’s Civil Defence Services, experiences of Cold War voluntarism are recalled in different ways. Some remembered their desire to help defend their nation and local community. Others remembered making a leisure choice that had little connection to the potential nuclear war the organization was ostensibly preparing for. No one provided a well-developed account of civil defence’s ability to provide a defence against the effects of a nuclear war. Popular memory theorists suggest cultural discourse limits the ability of individuals to narrate stories that do not align with culturally valued frameworks: in this case, dominant understandings of civil defence as at best ridiculous or at worst dangerous were established in the 1980s. This article argues that memories of civil defence voluntarism in the 1950-60s have been shaped by these discourses, but that individuals were able to express the different meanings civil defence had in their lives in ways that provide a more nuanced and holistic picture of the intersections of leisure, service and sociability that made up civil defence. As such, it argues that oral history allows us to understand the various ‘horizons of possibility’ that made up individual experiences of the Cold War.     

Probabilistic Analysis of Dam Accidents Worldwide: Risk Assessment for Dams of Different Purposes in OECD and Non-OECD Countries with Focus on Time Trend Analysis

This study presents probabilistic analysis of dam accidents worldwide in the period 1911–2016. The accidents are classified by the dam purpose and by the country cluster, where they occurred, distinguishing between the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and nonmember countries (non-OECD without China). A Bayesian hierarchical approach is used to model distributions of frequency and severity for accidents. This approach treats accident data as a multilevel system with subsets sharing specific characteristics. To model accident probabilities for a particular dam characteristic, this approach samples data from the entire data set, borrowing the strength across data set and enabling to model distributions even for subsets with scarce data. The modelled frequencies and severities are combined in frequency-consequence curves, showing that accidents for all dam purposes are more frequent in non-OECD (without China) and their maximum consequences are larger than in OECD countries. Multipurpose dams also have higher frequencies and maximum consequences than single-purpose dams. In addition, the developed methodology explicitly models time dependence to identify trends in accident frequencies over the analyzed period. Downward trends are found for almost all dam purposes confirming that technological development and implementation of safety measures are likely to have a positive impact on dam safety. The results of the analysis provide insights for dam risk management and decision-making processes by identifying key risk factors related to country groups and dam purposes as well as changes over time.     

清末社会维护领海渔业权活动考察

自20世纪初年开始，列强觊觎中国沿海渔业资源，在中国近海侵渔，侵害了中国领海渔业权，这引起了中国社会的关注。在反对外人侵渔的过程中，清末中国社会催生了领海渔业权意识。当时日本对华侵渔最明显，引起中国朝野抗议。除日本对华侵渔外，德国亦在胶州湾租借地开设渔业公司。这引起了部分中国人的警觉。为抵制外人侵渔，在张謇等人倡导下，清末中国社会兴起创办新式渔业公司的热潮。这对中国领海观念的形成具有重要影响，促使部分官员形成比较明确的领海渔业权观念。之后不久，张謇等人又在商部积极支持下参加了意大利米兰渔业赛会，试图向世界展示中国渔业界自保利权、维护海权的形象。尽管未能真正有效维护海权，但当时中国社会维护渔业权的努力仍值得肯定。     

Assessing the Performance of a Classification‐Based Vulnerability Analysis Model

In this article, a classification model based on the majority rule sorting (MR‐Sort) method is employed to evaluate the vulnerability of safety‐critical systems with respect to malevolent intentional acts. The model is built on the basis of a (limited‐size) set of data representing (a priori known) vulnerability classification examples. The empirical construction of the classification model introduces a source of uncertainty into the vulnerability analysis process: a quantitative assessment of the performance of the classification model (in terms of accuracy and confidence in the assignments) is thus in order. Three different app oaches are here considered to this aim: (i) a model–retrieval‐based approach, (ii) the bootstrap method, and (iii) the leave‐one‐out cross‐validation technique. The analyses are presented with reference to an exemplificative case study involving the vulnerability assessment of nuclear power plants.     

Major Accidents (Gray Swans) Likelihood Modeling Using Accident Precursors and Approximate Reasoning

Compared to the remarkable progress in risk analysis of normal accidents, the risk analysis of major accidents has not been so well‐established, partly due to the complexity of such accidents and partly due to low probabilities involved. The issue of low probabilities normally arises from the scarcity of major accidents’ relevant data since such accidents are few and far between. In this work, knowing that major accidents are frequently preceded by accident precursors, a novel precursor‐based methodology has been developed for likelihood modeling of major accidents in critical infrastructures based on a unique combination of accident precursor data, information theory, and approximate reasoning. For this purpose, we have introduced an innovative application of information analysis to identify the most informative near accident of a major accident. The observed data of the near accident were then used to establish predictive scenarios to foresee the occurrence of the major accident. We verified the methodology using offshore blowouts in the Gulf of Mexico, and then demonstrated its application to dam breaches in the United Sates.     

体系变革、战略塑造与近代日本的海权兴衰

本文提出了地缘政治学的三种研究路径:地理要素、权力政治、战略分析。针对1868年明治维新至1941年的太平洋战争这段时期,日本的海权崛起为何逐渐走向失控这个议题,提出的自变量解释是体系变革,它涵盖权力结构、地理因素与攻防平衡交互影响等;国家的战略塑造能力是中介变量,包括:战略对手的塑造、国内共识的形成、地缘学说的吸收和运用、联盟战略构成等。结合海军与陆军部门的竞争关系、国内政治与外部战略环境的交互影响、地理与历史的基础性作用、对马汉、豪斯浩弗等地缘学者的历史影响考察,以及近代日本先后针对中国、俄国(苏联)和美国进行的战略调整优劣进行评估。最后得出结论:国家的海权发展应有大战略思维,片面追求军国主义和穷兵黩武不利于国家的长远利益。